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☆ 'We've never seen this many extremes': Strategists warn of dot-com bubble similarities as expensive US stocks struggle — but this 7-part strategy can still outperform
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

From late October through March, the S&P 500 enjoyed a virtually uninterrupted 27.6% rally based on better-than-expected earnings and economic data. And while it's still well below the dot-com bubble levels, it's still too close for comfort for many investors. Related story"Those higher rates are starting to push back on elevated valuations for stocks right now," Saglimbene said. "They're all much cheaper on an earnings basis than those Magnificent 7 companies," Saglimbene said. "So I think if we avoid a recession this year, the narrative will change to a broadening of companies and sectors that can participate in earnings growth this year."

Persons: aren't, Anthony Saglimbene, Rick Pitcairn, Pitcairn, it's, we've, Raheel Siddiqui, Neuberger Berman, Siddiqui, Jon Wolfenbarger, Albert Edwards, Bill Smead, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Ragan, Saglimbene, Indrani, she's, De, Davidson, Siddiqui's Organizations: Ameriprise, Business, DA, FTSE Russell, Investors Locations: Ameriprise

☆ Hot inflation and high estimates could ruin the Q1 earnings season. Why investment chiefs are increasingly worried — and the bull case that profits are still underestimated.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Without strong profit progress in the Q1 earnings season starting in mid-April, US stocks may surrender their 8.2% year-to-date gain. Loftier estimates, top-heavy earnings are reasons for worryFirms have a rather low bar to clear in the upcoming earnings season, as is often the case. The market's largest companies are disproportionately driving earnings growth in addition to stock returns, Goldman Sachs found. The Q1 earnings season begins in earnest on Friday as big banks share results. Early reporters have beaten earnings estimates by 13.5%, Golub wrote, which he added is more than double the typical rate.

Persons: Richard Saperstein, James Ragan, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, we're, Saglimbene, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Jonathan Golub, Golub, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Treasury Partners, DA Davidson, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bel Air Investment Advisors, UBS, Institute for Supply Management Locations: America

☆ Inflation will be on investors' minds next week as worries over sky-high valuations grow
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The February consumer price index, set for release Tuesday, and the producer price index, due out Thursday, could hurt equities if the reports come out hotter than expected. The S & P 500 closed out the week with losses, but has advanced more than 7% for the year. Some stubborn spots in inflation February's consumer inflation data next week comes after January's surprisingly hot report dented investor hopes the so-called last mile to the Fed's 2% inflation target will be easy. Export Price Index (February) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (February) 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Giuseppe Sette, FactSet, James Ragan, Davidson, Nordstrom, Davidson's Ragan, Kathleen Grace, Russell, Office's Grace, Grace, Price, Jeff Cox, Nick Wells Organizations: Fed, Nvidia, Meta, Oracle, Treasury Budget, Adobe, Price, Index, Manufacturing Locations: chug, Michigan

S&P 500 (.SPX) companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 1.3% from a year ago, according to LSEG IBES. After a rough September for stocks, "we need some good news" from earnings season, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Inflation dampened company earnings in the first half, after consumer prices surged in 2022 to their highest levels in decades. Investors will also scrutinize company fourth-quarter outlooks, with S&P 500 earnings for the fourth quarter currently expected to rise 10.8% from a year earlier. One clue could come from the consumer discretionary sector (.SPLRCD), where earnings are expected to have jumped by 23.1% from the year-ago period.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, LSEG, Matthew Miskin, You've, you've, Miskin, Rick Meckler, John Hancock, J.P, Morgan Chase, James Ragan, Davidson, Ragan, ”, Oliver Pursche, Caroline Valetkevitch, Lewis Krauskopf, Megan Davies, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, John Hancock Investment Management, Cherry, Investments, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, UnitedHealth, Wealthspire Advisors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Westport , Connecticut

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Surging Treasury yields upend stock market's "bond proxies"
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Such areas are often referred to as "bond proxies" for their strong, stable dividends, which over the past decade have usually exceeded Treasury yields. But surging bond yields have dulled the appeal of bond proxies. As a result, shares of bond proxies have taken an outsize hit in recent weeks. The S&P 500 utilities sector (.SPLRCU) has tumbled 13% since last month’s Fed meeting. While the sector is expected to see stronger growth than the overall S&P 500 in the third and fourth quarters, its projected 8.6% increase in 2024 lags the expected 12% rise for the overall S&P 500, according to LSEG IBES.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Irene Tunkel, LSEG, James Ragan, Davidson, Ragan, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Fed, Staples, AT, Verizon, Investors, BCA Research, Reuters Graphics, Friday's, U.S, sector's, Nextera Energy, Nextera Energy Partners, KeyBanc, Markets, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Philadelphia, VandaTrack

☆ US stocks rise on earnings outlook, global shares dip on China data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 12, 2023. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led U.S. stocks higher, supported by megacap growth stocks including Apple, Nvidia and Tesla, ahead of quarterly results from industry heavyweights later this week. Second-quarter earnings are expected to decline 8.1%, according to Refinitiv data, down further than the 5.7% decline expected at the start of the month. Data on U.S. retail sales are expected to show a rise of 0.3% ex-autos, continuing the slower trend but solid enough to fit into the market's soft-landing theme. Futures are pricing in an additional 32 basis points of tightening this year, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, it's, Anthony Saglimbene, James Ragan, Brent, Herbert Lash, Karen Brettell, Amanda Cooper, Wayne Cole, Lincoln, Christina Fincher, Barbara Lewis, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Tesla Inc, Bank of America Corp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Netflix Inc, Dow Jones, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Oil, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Troy , Michigan, Davidson, Seattle, Europe, New York, London, Sydney

☆ Global shares dip after China data; US stocks gain
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 12, 2023. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led U.S. stocks higher, supported by megacap growth stocks including Apple and Tesla, ahead of quarterly results from industry heavyweights later this week. Stocks in Europe closed lower, with the pan-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) down 0.63% while MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS), which is heavily weighted to U.S. megacap stocks, edged higher by 0.14%. Futures are pricing in an additional 32 basis points of tightening this year, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November. U.S. crude fell $1.27 to settle at $74.15 per barrel and Brent settled down $1.37 at $78.50.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, it's, Anthony Saglimbene, James Ragan, Brent, Herbert Lash, Karen Brettell, Amanda Cooper, Wayne Cole, Lincoln, Christina Fincher, Barbara Lewis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, YORK, Nasdaq, Apple, Tesla, Tesla Inc, Bank of America Corp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Netflix Inc, Dow Jones, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Sterling, Bank of England, CBA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Troy , Michigan, Davidson, Seattle, Europe, New York, London, Sydney

☆ Why the Fed is still likely to raise rates after cooler June jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But beneath the surface, the jobs market remains hot. What’s next: The June Consumer Price Index report, a key inflation reading, is due on Wednesday. The Producer Price Index report for June is due on Thursday. Wednesday: Consumer Price Index report and housing starts for June. Thursday: Producer Price Index report for June.

Persons: ”, Joseph Davis, What’s, That’s, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Candice Tse, Price, Chris Isidore, Biden, Julie Su Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Vanguard, Traders, DA, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, UPS, Teamsters, NY, Reserve’s Survey, University of Michigan

☆ June inflation data will be closely watched by investors in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are turning their attention to inflation data in the week ahead, following this week's hot jobs data, to further clarify the path of future monetary policy. Market participants are hoping next week's release of the June consumer price index on Wednesday, as well as last month's producer price index on Thursday, will show a downward trajectory in inflation after this week's strong ADP data spurred investor fears of further rate hikes ahead. Broadly speaking, investors are pricing in another quarter point rate hike at the July meeting. Of note, stocks tumbled Thursday after hotter-than-expected ADP data suggested the Federal Reserve has further to go in its tightening campaign. FactSet data shows analysts expect S & P 500 earnings fell 7% in the second quarter against the same quarter a year ago.

Persons: James Ragan, Davidson, Hogan, Rhys Williams, Williams, you've, Davidson's Ragan, Citigroup startegists, Wells, UnitedHealth, Michael Barr Organizations: Traders, Federal Reserve, Riley, Dow Jones Industrial, Treasury, Asset Management, JPMorgan, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Dow, PepsiCo, Delta Air, Conagra, Delta Air Lines, Fastenal Locations: Wells Fargo, Cintas, UnitedHealth

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Recession worries simmer beneath US stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Economically sensitive areas of the U.S. stock market are flashing warnings over growth, even as major equity indexes edge higher. Beneath the surface, however, areas of the market tied to economic sentiment such as transports, semiconductors and small-cap stocks dropped in April, while so-called defensive sectors are outperforming. “People are starting to more defensively position themselves,” said Aaron Dunn, co-head of the value equity team at Eaton Vance. "They are talking about demand being down and they are ridiculously important shipping companies,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis-Investors cautious on U.S. stocks, even though Fed hikes may soon end
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 closing down 1.65% after swinging between gains and losses during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference following the meeting. Futures markets are now pricing a Fed funds rate of around 4.25% by year-end, compared with the range of 4.75% to 5% that took effect on Wednesday. A drop in Treasury yields from recent highs has also given a tailwind to stocks, especially to big tech and growth names that are heavily weighted in the S&P 500. Corporate profits are another potential trouble spot, with S&P 500 earnings expected to post year-over-year declines in the first and second quarters after falling 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES. “I don’t think the market is going off to the races,” said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A.

☆ Analysis: Investors cautious on U.S. stocks, even though Fed hikes may soon end
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) closing down 1.65% after swinging between gains and losses during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference following the meeting. Futures markets are now pricing a Fed funds rate of around 4.25% by year-end, compared with the range of 4.75% to 5% that took effect on Wednesday. US stock market during the Fed's hiking cycleUNCERTAIN OUTLOOKStocks have been resilient this year in the face of uncertainty, with the S&P 500 up 2.5% since the end of 2022. A drop in Treasury yields from recent highs has also given a tailwind to stocks, especially to big tech and growth names that are heavily weighted in the S&P 500. Corporate profits are another potential trouble spot, with S&P 500 earnings expected to post year-over-year declines in the first and second quarters after falling 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Inflation data on deck for markets hit by worries about Fed, banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - A critical inflation report next week will test a U.S. stock market already consumed by worries over Federal Reserve hawkishness and potential fallout from the largest bank failure since the financial crisis. A hotter-than-expected consumer price report on Tuesday, however, could reignite fears of jumbo-sized Fed rate hikes like those that rocked markets last year. After a big rebound in January, the benchmark index is now clinging to a 0.6% gain for 2023. The consumer price report is followed the next day by more inflation data, on producer prices. Besides signs of falling inflation, reassurance for investors could come if it became clearer that SVB’s issues were unlikely to spread.

Inflation data improved too, as growth in personal consumption expenditures slowed to 2.1% year over year from 2.3% in the prior quarter while the GDP price index, another inflation measure, decelerated to 3.5%. MSCI's all-country world index, a gauge of stocks in 47 countries, (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.62% to hit a fresh five-month high, while the dollar index rose 0.325%. "What Powell has pushed back on a lot is to not really think about lowering rates at all," Ragan said. "But they are willing to pause and hold rates at a high level for a certain period of time." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.70% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 1.24%.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 7, 2022. In currencies, the dollar, a beneficiary of rising U.S. interest rates, fell on the day but was on track for a 2022 gain of roughly 8%, its biggest annual increase since 2015. The U.S. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose on Friday and closed out the trading year with its biggest annual increase in decades, pushed higher by aggressive Fed rate hikes. U.S. crude oil futures registered a second straight annual gain after a wildly volatile year marked by tight supplies due to the Ukraine war and then sliding demand from China, the world's top crude importer. Gold was showing its biggest quarterly gain since June 2020, while the Fed's fast-paced tightening cycle had tempered bullion's progress for the full year.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Soaring U.S. tech stocks leave some investors doubtful rebound will last
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-12 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

At the same time, tech sector valuations remain well above the overall market, while analysts are dimming their profit outlooks for the group. That level, which is still above the 17 times earnings commanded by the S&P 500, is still too lofty for some investors. Still, some investors are considering increasing their positions in tech and megacap stocks if further evidence of easing inflation presents itself. Higher yields can weigh heavily on tech and growth stocks, whose valuations tend to be based heavily on future profits that are discounted more severely as yields go higher. The firm has been underweight large-cap tech and growth stocks, preferring small cap and value shares, Lip said.

☆ Analysis: Goodbye, TINA: higher yields muddy outlook for struggling U.S. stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Soaring interest rates are providing investors with attractive alternatives to stocks, complicating the picture for equities in an already-vicious year. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThat calculus has drastically changed as the Fed hikes interest rates to stave off the worst inflation in decades, bolstering yields on everything from Treasuries to money markets. Money market funds took in $30 billion in the latest week, according to Refinitiv Lipper, while equity funds, taxable fixed income funds, and tax-exempt bond funds all had net redemptions. "We are definitely getting a resizing of that now.”Reuters GraphicsOf course, the alternatives to stocks are far from risk free. Still, the robust yields are likely to continue presenting a challenge to stocks, investors said.

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